分类： 地球科学 >> 地理学 提交时间： 2023-04-13 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》
摘要：Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts. Therefore, studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital. In this study, we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Karoun River Basin (KRB) of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period (1990–2005). The root mean square error (RMSE) value is less than 0.75 in 77% of the synoptic stations. GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain. Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results. The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB, drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. At the seasonal scale, the decreasing trend for SPI in spring, summer, and winter shows a drought tendency in this region. The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences, especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods. Accordingly, an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages. The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.
分类： 地球科学 >> 地理学 提交时间： 2021-09-08 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》
摘要： Agriculture needs to produce more food to feed the growing population in the 21st century. It makes the reference crop water requirement (WREQ) a major challenge especially in regions with limited water and high water demand. Iran, with large climatic variability, is experiencing a serious water crisis due to limited water resources and inefficient agriculture. In order to overcome the issue of uneven distribution of weather stations, gridded Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data was applied to analyze the changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET), effective precipitation (EFFPRE) and WREQ. Validation of data using in situ observation showed an acceptable performance of CRU in Iran. Changes in PET, EFFPRE and WREQ were analyzed in two 30-a periods 1957–1986 and 1987–2016. Comparing two periods showed an increase in PET and WREQ in regions extended from the southwest to northeast and a decrease in the southeast, more significant in summer and spring. However, EFFPRE decreased in the southeast, northeast, and northwest, especially in winter and spring. Analysis of annual trends revealed an upward trend in PET (14.32 mm/decade) and WREQ (25.50 mm/decade), but a downward trend in EFFPRE (–11.8 mm/decade) over the second period. Changes in PET, EFFPRE and WREQ in winter have the impact on the annual trend. Among climate variables, WREQ showed a significant correlation (r=0.59) with minimum temperature. The increase in WREQ and decrease in EFFPRE would exacerbate the agricultural water crisis in Iran. With all changes in PET and WREQ, immediate actions are needed to address the challenges in agriculture and adapt to the changing climate.
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